Bitcoin Bulls’ Path: Reclaim $112.5K & Positive ETF Flows

Bitcoin’s recent trading at $101,328, following a erased recovery, underscores fading demand and long-term holder selling, indicating a market testing crucial structural supports. A Glassnode report outlines two essential reversals for a bullish comeback. Firstly, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows must shift to net positive, counteracting two weeks of daily outflows ranging from $150 million to $700 million. Secondly, Bitcoin’s price must reclaim and sustain the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis at $112,500 as firm support. Failing these two “flips” risks a decline to the Active Investors’ Realized price near $88,500, historically a marker for deeper corrective phases.

The article highlights a structural breakdown, with Bitcoin consistently failing to hold above $112,500. This level is crucial because trading below it places Short-Term Holders in unrealized losses, increasing selling pressure. While 71% of the circulating supply remains profitable at $100,000, aligning with typical mid-cycle slowdowns, the current 11% discount from $112,500 is significant enough to invite further downside if support doesn’t materialize. The Relative Unrealized Loss stands at 3.1%, suggesting an orderly revaluation rather than panic, though the buffer is thin.

Adding to the concerns is the quiet distribution from long-term holders, who have shed approximately 300,000 BTC since July 2025, selling into weakness—a behavioral shift signaling fatigue. Institutional demand has also cooled, evidenced by consistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and negative Cumulative Volume Delta Bias across major exchanges. Derivatives markets, with declining perpetual futures directional premiums and elevated put demand in options, reinforce a defensive posture. Bitcoin is in a fragile equilibrium: oversold but not panicked. Its future trajectory hinges on whether renewed demand can absorb ongoing distribution and firmly reclaim $112,500. Until positive ETF flows resume and price secures this key level, bulls lack the necessary momentum to reverse the current structural weakness.

(Source: https://cryptoslate.com/btc-bulls-need-2-things-positive-etf-flows-and-to-reclaim-112500/)