Gold Posts Longest Run of Weekly Losses in Nearly 30 Years
Gold fell for a seventh straight week as of Friday's London fix, marking the longest stretch of weekly declines in the metal since the summer of 1996, according to data reported by BullionVault. The price slipped $5 per troy ounce from last Friday's 3pm auction to settle around $4185, even as gold rallied on the day and bond market interest rates retreated sharply.
The seven-week losing streak matches a similar run at the end of 2016 and is the longest since 1996, BullionVault reported. Gold has not kept pace with recent Middle East tensions the way some analysts expected. Oxford Economics said in its latest commodity price outlook that higher oil prices have stoked inflation concerns, which in turn have reinforced expectations of tighter US monetary policy, supporting both bond yields and the dollar. Still, the consultancy noted that central-bank purchases and investor demand continue to support prices, and it forecasts average gold prices of $4515 per ounce this year, a 7.2% rise in 2027, and an average above $5000 the following year. Gold has averaged $4525 so far this year, about $200 below the average forecast analysts made at the start of the year.
Central banks bought 63 tonnes of gold net of sales in September, according to preliminary data from the World Gold Council, the heaviest monthly purchase total in two years. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds have also kept growing even as prices fall, a pattern that runs counter to the usual relationship between ETF holdings and bullion prices.
Retail demand tells a different story. Data from the US Mint shows coin sales on pace for their weakest year since 2000, when demand collapsed 92.0% by weight from 1999's unusually heavy buying ahead of the millennium. BullionVault noted that the past two years' drop in US retail gold demand fits a longstanding pattern in which coin sales tend to slow whenever a Republican occupies the White House.
Despite the recent pullback, gold and silver remain the two best-performing major asset classes for US investors since just before Donald Trump's re-election in November 2024, up 52.5% and 76.0% respectively over two years. By comparison, Bitcoin has gained 17.6% in dollar terms, the S&P 500 has returned 38.5% including dividends, and the Nasdaq 100 has returned 49.8%.
Silver fell for a fourth straight week, fixing near $57.75 per troy ounce at Friday's noon auction in London, its lowest weekend benchmark since mid-July.
The US dollar also weakened, touching its lowest level so far this month against major currencies and falling 1.2% on the DXY index from Wednesday's 17-month high. The move followed comments from Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh, who told a conference in Bangkok that he would not vote for another rate increase at this month's policy meeting. Warsh declined to offer further guidance on future decisions but said conditions since the Fed's September rate rise "have broadly conformed with our expectations." Market-implied odds of a rate hike at the coming meeting fell to worse than 1-in-7, down from above 70% at the end of last month.
Global stock markets recovered some ground after a tech-stock selloff earlier in the week but still ended lower for the week on the MSCI World Index. Government bond prices rose for the first week since late August, pulling the 10-year US Treasury yield down nearly a fifth of a percentage point from last week's near 25-year high of 5.26%, the sharpest weekly drop since last year's tariff turmoil in April. Crude oil held above $100 a barrel amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, keeping US diesel prices near September's record above $6.50 a gallon. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy, speaking in Brussels, warned that an apparent diesel arrangement between Trump and Russia's President Putin "will not be the last if we turn a blind eye to it," cautioning that similar deals could extend to gas supplies and banking.
Who this affects
Anyone holding gold, silver or related investment products may notice the shift in short-term pricing trends. Savers considering retail coins or bars, as well as those watching currency and bond markets tied to Federal Reserve policy, may also see some effect from these developments.
As with all market-moving news, a personal finance writer who regularly explains money, insurance and benefits topics for everyday households would note that price swings like this are part of normal market cycles rather than signals to act quickly. Readers are encouraged to review their own financial situation with a licensed financial professional before making any decisions related to gold, silver or other investments.
Some investors weighing gold’s recent slump are also exploring gold blockchain technology, which lets people hold tokenized bullion without storing physical bars.
Investors watching gold reserves losses across major markets have grown cautious as the metal extends its longest weekly slide since the mid-1990s.
Source: BullionVault
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